The crypto market in the summer of 2025: will “Black September” return?
In the crypto community, September is known as a historically “tough” month. Bitcoin has performed negatively this month in 9 of the last 11 years. Is this also true in 2025?
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The historical statistics
September is on average the worst performing month for Bitcoin. Average negative return of about 5-7%. On the other hand, October (“Uptober”) that follows is considered strong. November-December is even stronger in the Halving years.
What explains the phenomenon?
There is no unequivocal accepted explanation. One of the explanations: summer = positive sentiment and buying, September = actual profits before the end of the year. Psychological effects: self-anticipation of Black September can fulfill itself.
2025 in perspective
In the Elving years (2024), the summer-autumn trend was more positive. In 2025 – a year after the halving – history points to a bull market. Will the seasonal pattern overcome the halving cycle? This is not a recommended bet.
What to do?
Seasonality is a given, an uncertainty. Diversification, DCA (gradual investing), and not trying to time the market are basic tips. Read about macro analysis.
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